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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Therapy
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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (790)3/10/2000 1:57:00 PM
From: Wolf 2  Read Replies (1) of 4564
 
TSO:

Many thanks for the link. Just a couple of comments on the valuation model:

1.except that it addressed only one aspect of NERX' products.

Doesn't the following account for the 'other aspects' of NERX?:

Second, we ask, what is it worth if PRETARGET fails? We think in 4-7 years (sufficient window to know if it works, and what its scope is), NERX would be $200-500M given other programs.

2. Never a mathematical whiz, I still have difficulty with a model which adds together the values of two different scenarios albeit weighted to the success ratio. Simpleton that I am, I would be inclined to look either at the valuation in the event of the success of Pretarget or the valuation in the event of failure of Pretarget and only then ascribe the probability factors--i.e. 30%-success, 70%-failure.

Regards,
Wolf (the dense)
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