To all: Look for a halt tomorrow on the stock (opinion only) Why?
Financial Post article (not that I am suddenly a believer) did agree with my personal assessment of day traders lightening their load, accounting for 20% price drop on Thursday. Notice that BSR held up well, probably because it is acting like a 50% warrant of BXM, much cheaper than the ridiculously priced options market. I was glad to see the old world newspapers call that one out loud.
Sentiment may be growing that a leak of some kind is bound to happen very soon, given the tremendous pressure surrounding BXM (TSE and brokers conspiring how they will handle the volume overload when the proverbial s--t hits the fan). Lots of heavyweights stepping into the public relations exercise, most recent additions - Monk and Kissinger - are other indications of pressure cooker buildup.
Would not surprise me one bit to see wild pre-openings tomorrow, followed by a 9:30 a.m. no bid, no ask. Trading reopens only on Monday, with everyone having lots of time to digest the news releases that occur late Friday afternoon.
Nothing about this stock has been straightforward for the longest time. When it looked like they would get the cow in September, Merukh stepped into the picture. When it looked like there might be open bidding, Barrick stepped into the picture. Then out of the blue came Freeport and the 45% Indo steal. Then de Guzman's flying leap, followed by Freeport's insignificant gold, followed by the TSE late afternoon folly, followed by the rise of Internet market influence, followed by rumours about Freeport pulling, Jim Bob resigning, salting, more salting, sample preparation misshaps (hammer mill, mesh, core size, you name it). Patient status changes from "insignificant" to "inconclusive" (akin to medical terminology from critical to serious condition), more leaks from Indonesia ranging from "cheerful amounts of gold" to "significant amounts of gold" (albeit less than Bre-x thought).
My point, nothing about this stock surprises me anymore. So just when the world is counting it out (except for us loveable, albeit, potentially gullible, pro-Bre-xers), damn if Bre-x doesn't surprise us all with a Strathcona report that vindicates Walsh, Felderhoff, and de Guzman (posthumously). And then, just when we think the stock will rebound to previously high levels (pre-crash), the Indos stick their noses in, Merukh makes the front pages, lawsuits crosshair everyone in sight, and the stock bounces around again, despite 70 million plus ounces in the ground. Forget the movie, think Dallas and Larry Hagman. Could go on for years.
Seriously though, I think our chances are better than even, that price levels on Monday will be a lot higher than today. There is gold in Busang, a lot of it, just how much has been cast in doubt and it may take a while to convince everyone of the real size of the deposit.
Long on BXM, BSR and BXO and hoping that all the naysayers will turn out to be wrong. May we all make lots of money in the coming days...
Good luck and best wishes to everyone. Who said it: Why can't we all just get along (Nicholson in Mars Attacks).
P.S. (aside to Goldman...loved your baseball analogy...just hope you are not related to Casey and there is no Mudville in Indonesia) |
