. . . . Morph'd Rotation . . . . .
Spirit, thanks for the DD DD. [Disk drive Due Dili]. . .your contributions in finding undervalued stocks is invaluable.
I am seeing gradual rotation. . .like the morphing of two faces. . .
We have a stock pickers market. . .but I have got to tell you. . .this looks very similar to the market we generally have in early April. . . .certain stocks keep roaring ahead, yet others just drop lower and lower. . . in the first week of April last year, only a few high fliers were lower. . .but by the third week, it was hard to find ANYTHING going north.
Today FEELS like a bear market, folks. Analyze as you wish. . .regardless of what the Dow or Naz index says. . .the activity has slowed dramatically. . .the volume has slowed. . .the action is hard to find. . . this could be a fluke, or it could be a glimpse into what lies ahead.
I like Raymond James analysis [at Ralph Bloch]. . . there, I don't hate all anal-ysts. . .today he called a blowoff top on the Naz. . .with one of two scenarios. . .either we race to ridiculous heights as we did on Dec. 31, then sell-off in a major way the following day. . .or we see a long slow decline.
I will take it a step further and say that I believe it will go down like this. .. .some stocks will continue with strength, while others turn in daily losses. . . .sectors won't matter. . .some stocks in the same sector will do well. .. others won't. . . the next day. . .another group of unrelated stocks will do well. . .while yesterday's winners sell off. . .wash and rinse. . . day-after-day. . .with an increasing amount of stocks selling off. . .until critical mass is reached. . . Monday, April 17th I believe will be the day when this critical mass is reached . . .and techs overall start lower. . . .prior to that day, we should stay fairly volatile.
Meanwhile, sector rotation is fully underway. . . whether anyone tells you or not. . .one only need watch CAT, to figure that out. So when the next "big rotation" day happens. . .the smart money will have already been dug in. . .and may even be looking to rotate back out already. And how do you sell when the Nasdaq keeps making RECORD highs??. . . you'll have to figure that one out for yourselves.
One thing is for sure. Wall Street does not want us cashing out with their money!! And as such, they are not going to make this easy for us. . . . we must stay AHEAD of the market moves. . . light on our feet. . .like Maury Wills of the 60's S.F. Giants and I believe later the Cards. . . leading off 2nd base. . .light on the feet. . .watching the signals. . . never getting caught flatfooted.
That is the strategy du jour, in my estimate. Play it as you wish. I am mostly defensive and doing fine with my modest gains. . . .while still playing some tech stocks and pennies on the swing. . .but only when they are moving in my favor. . . .light on the feet.
Otherwise, I am cashing in and digging in. . .
Rande Is |
