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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: unclewest who wrote (19760)3/11/2000 9:57:00 AM
From: 100cfm  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
Elon

Had an interesting conversation re Lonworks with my Trane Rep yesterday afternoon.

1. Trane is abandonning their proprietary automation system known as Tracer. The new system rolling out will be known as Summit which is Lon compatible.

2. All Trane products and devices will have the Lon chip/board in them. The Summit control panel will have terminals that will accept other Lon systems to be tied into it ie: alarm systems, lighting systems and sprinkler systems.

3. Bacnet seems to be relagated to the function of communicating between different systems ie: Honeywell, Johnson and etc. In short Lon will be on the terminal and device level and Bacnet will be on the system level.

4. Carrier is also moving over to Lon from their proprietary system known as CCN according to my Trane Rep.

5. Make no mistake that these are definning moments. Trane and Carrier account for the Lion's share of all commercial/industrial HVAC equipment installed worldwide.
Since Lon's main thrust right now is building automation, this is huge. The third and fourth tier players McQuay and York are sure to be following close behind. Will look into it on Monday.

6. Lon is in the early adoptors hands right now. I say this because when I asked mr Trane is his equipment being specified with Lon yet the answer was no. That is consistent with my findings, I have not seen LOn actually specified in any specifications I have read and I read close to a dozen a week.

7. It seems the discription of the adoption cycle in the FM is right on with Lon. The early adoptors are jumping on board but the pragmatists( the engineers and architects) are still not sure. Once the pragmatists feel comfortable with Lon they will start including it into their specifications and then the flood gates will open up or should I say the wind velometer will start whirring.

8. Trane is holding a Lon interoperability seminar the week of the 20th for engineers, building owners and architects. I will be attending for any technical info I can pass on but mainly to take the pulse of the pragmatist who will be attending. I will gauge their sentiments before and after the seminar and see if any have a timeline for incorporating Lon into thier specifications.

In sum, I will go back to what Merlin said about when the right time to invest pre tornado is, "when the news makes it obvious that the tornado will form"(sorry mike if thats not exactly how you said it). To me the fact that Carrier and Trane are abandonning their proprietary systems that were so precious to them and incorporating Lon into every device and piece of equipment makes it obvious to me that a tornado will form without doubt. I immediately doubled my position in Elon when he left.
One last thought in re to the various discussions of what the number of neuron chips and id nodes that will be sold. When you think that any decent sized building will have upwards of a thousand Lon nodes it's very easy to see that a millions of nodes per day can be sold worldwide.

More on Monday

100 kicking himself for not getting in earlier on something
he's in the business of. DUH!
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