crazyoldman:
Thanks for the post...13 million Athys...BAM!!!
Last I heard in December, AMD was projecting 9 million Athys in Y2000...This new target represents almost a 50% increase and can only signal that Athy shipments are far ahead of Q1 target and it also signals that AMD will surpass $5 billion in Y2000 revenues, perhaps even doubling Y99 revenues of less than $3 billion...Let's see...Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 shipments of 2, 2.5, 3.5, 5 million Athys respectively combined with 5, 4, 3, 3 Non-Athys respectively should result in Y2000 processor revenues of $3.5 billion and an average ASP of $120 and assuming constant flash profit contribution throughout Y2000 will result in a Y2000 minimum eps of $4.00 per share assuming a $1.00 breakeven ASP...Q4 eps of $0.43 was achieved with an ASP of $80, which may be closer to Breakeven ASP, in which case, an AMD $7.00 Y2000 eps cannot be considered unrealistic!
Mr. Sanders 13 million Y2000 Athy estimate also increases the probability that AMD will ship 2 million Athy's in Q1, in which case, a Q1 eps exceeding $1.00 is looking more and more realistic, imho!
(On another note, watching a pre-Xbox decision interview with Gates and listening to the poltical party commentary concerning Dell and the Republicans, my significant other who does not follow AMD or Intel, interpreted the interview as a lock for Intel! Beats me how she arrived at that conclusion!)
In retrospect, I'm happy to see Mr. Sanders didn't cave in on pricing or compromise his AMD mission which is to maintain control of the top-end of the microprocessor market. His judgment not to give away the farm to own a piece of the city on this one, in the longer run, may just turn out to be the most financially rewarding decision of his business career! |
