Sorry, slacker; I have my own way of looking at this thing and it's not neat. Neither is the global telecom market. Yes, W-CDMA will be late and I don't buy the Japan Telecom time schedule anymore I buy NTT-DoCoMo's. DoCoMo would no be investing in TDMA-based packet-switched infrastructure at thispoint if they really thought they could roll out W-CDMA widely in March 2001. That's just twelve months away.
But it still is a victory for Nokia. Even if the schedule slips and slides, even if the more modest 2,5G technology takes off in Japan in the meanwhile. Because it's the first time Japan has opened to Nokia. So Nokia has a shot there when 3G finally arrives. It's fairly certain that DoCoMo will also order W-CDMA stuff from Nokia, so two Japanese operators will be 3G customers.
In the meanwhile, the mobile internet in Western markets is going Nokia's way - GPRS has already taken off and it looks like EDGE could follow very soon. TDMA operators seem to be gravitating into that direction; this is why Ameritech switched into TDMA. Not because of the lousy second generation TDMA technology, but because it's already looking towards EDGE.
So Nokia lands about 40% of the GSM operators into the GPRS land. The it migrates these customers into EDGE... and sometime in the hazy future into W-CDMA. Nokia tries to wrestle AT&T, BellSouth and SBC out of the Lucent/Ericsson camp by pointing out that if they want their EDGE phones to actually work, they better get smart about their network orders. And in Asia, there is the W-CDMA angle in Japan definitely, China very likely and Korea just possibly.
This is what I want to see from a telecom company. A clear, global roadmap that addresses Europe, North America and Asia. A roadmap that takes into account both possibilities:
A) 3G will be delayed and 2,5G solutions will triumph in 2001-2003.
B) 3G will be implemented early and 2,5G solutions like GPRS and EDGE will be only transition phase technologies.
I think the scenario A is unfolding right now. And I think that 40 kbps will do quite nicely for 2-4 years. We already know that consumers are lapping up 9,6 kbps mobile internet in Japan. It's a fact. We don't have to wonder whether that speed is enough to trigger a massive consumer boom. We know it for a fact.
And we know that Nokia can sell GPRS phones at below 600 dollars, at below 100 grams and still turn a handsome profit. The dirty little secret of HDR is that the phones will be bulky and heavy - the dirty little secret of 3G models is that they will cost an arm and a leg.
Understanding consumer preferences is what Nokia excels at... and that has been the weak point of both Lucent and Qualcomm. That's why they both sold their handset units. Let's have a 40 kbps mobile internet with lightweight, inexpensive models and then unroll the 3G stuff slowly, initially aimed at professional, urban users. That's the real world scenario.
Tero |
