Congrats on timing that move, with your 3 day lead time, that is quite a feat!!!
I am running through my charts now and so far, it is still split although as I posted, the bias is definitely down. Of course my DOW weekly is still showing upside potential intermediate term as I posted last week but it now appears that it could be doing the double bounce thing on the indicators and we could get another downleg briefly before bouncing. Note I am talking about indicators so a bounce in teh indicators could still mean lower prices. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I show banks in the over sold area, along with chemicals and that is about all the bullish potential I see out there other than some strength in OJ's favorite sector Semi equips. Just about everything else is weak or over bought to the extreme with plenty of downside left.
B2Bs are split within their own sector with many being thrown over board and dropping in an accelerating manner. The ones that are still in a favorable light are triggering over bought signals and should start to come down also soon. Software could run a little while longer and while a few of them show some potential, most are setting up for declines IMO. Many Biotechs are being slaughtered and I love many of these companies based on FA ( and I don't mean the manic ones that ran up teh last couple months) but since I can find no news, I have to figure either it is expiration games or else there is a secret out there that we the little guys are not privy to yet.
What amazed me most is some of my indicators that I rarely check. I am showing a vast increase in NASDAQ declining issues and new lows despite what Yahoo and some other sites show. This is probably due to them only counting yearly new lows and not my modified indicator which looks for trending and mid term time spans. It appears that the NASDAQ is being gutted in a stealthy manner. Also my NYSE top out indicator is actually higher than I expected and shows the bounces should reverse in many of the weak issues.
I can't guarantee anything but I have a lot of wedges still, etc and most of those are pointing to 2 weeks to a month Maximum before we fall hard but I suspect they will drop earlier. Basically to put it simply, We could drop any day now but in two months we should have been at some point substantially lower than we are now. The only confusion factor is do we get a relief rally after the FOMC on earnings runs etc then drop, do we get an expiration rally then drop on the FOMC news or an earnings warning? Do we just drop Monday and then get the bounce from the FOMC relief rally or do we drop Monday and nothing can turn it around? Basically I see anything possible as to scenarios but they are all calling for a severe decline in the NASDAQ within the couple months and most likely much sooner. I am favoring a drop now, slight bounce then decline sharply later and more severely scenario at first glance but all these darn news items, outside influences and schedules make it tough since news often overrides TA.
Some of these parabolic tulips are going to be easy sell the news shorts if some miracle does manage to hold things up but I doubt it will wait that long. To only be able to know what AG has up his sleeve. <ggg> While many including me suspect a relief rally after the FOMC meeting, wouldn't it be grand if he came out and said he was leaving interest rates alone but was getting rid of margin <ggg> Now that would be exciting!!!!!!!! Oh, to have far out of the money puts on the QQQ just before that announcement. <g>
Good Luck,
Lee |
