no alarms went off on Naz last week
very healthy pullback to roughly the mark I set: 4700-4750
that represented a 3/8 retracement of the recent run since Feb
the major index averages behave predicably in technical sense far far more than individual stocks
I think it is because of the Central Limit Theorem in Probability, which dictates that averaging numerous entities leads to normal behavior perceptions
did you guys realize that NazComp has undergone two 10% declines in y2000 already?
the Thursday pullback to 4700+ is exactly what prevents a major correction in the Naz
it is correcting itself along the way, shaking out infidels, picking up ex-value investors, and grabbing new money coming into the market
I stated a view last week that Naz might move to 5200 or so
a correction is almost always preceded by a stall of several days, characterized by stutter moves up, giving it back, wandering, taking a long pee, and breathing more heavily from rarified air
technicians call that period of time on the chart -- stage#3
#1 ignition
#2 serious liftoff
#3 stall at top
#4 start to break down, catching itself somewhat
#5 fall in mud and feces
if Naz acts according to Hoyle, it will stall around 5170-5300 for a few days
putting together some thoughts about overall financial setting right now, will post it this evening
here is a sample: bond rally is IMMINENT, with crude oil topping out
this will send NazComp toward 6000 this spring/ summer
that is, unless the Mollopso Apso bites its leg and prevents it
the yappy little jackass canine lowlife
/ jim |
