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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals
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To: Tai Jin who wrote (7299)3/11/2000 10:11:00 PM
From: LPS5  Read Replies (2) of 18137
 
Tai,

I've thought about this a bit myself, and have come up with the following scenarios as the only ones that could conceivably lead to a "crash":

1. Large scale armed conflict, such as:
a) declared, conventional war between the U.S. and the CIS (former USSR) or China;
b) a nuclear exchange between nuclear powers, i.e. Pakistan/India
c) full scale conventional or nuclear war, on the scale of '67 or '73, in the Middle East

2. Sudden death of Alan Greenspan

3. Default of several (2-3 plus) major investment or commercial banks in a several day time period, particularly if due to a (until then) gradual market downturn

Just my personal scenarios. Obviously each comes with it's own degree of likelihood, and none - even realized - guarantee a precipitous market drop. These are just scenarios which I think, fully realized, have a better chance at causing the long-awaited crash than most others.

*bracing myself!*

LPS5
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