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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: voop who wrote (19840)	3/12/2000 3:32:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Kopin Voop, nice write up on Kopin. I first came across them researching CREE. You mentioned that they just recently became profitable, but my research from a few months ago revealed that in 15 years of existence they have never had a profitable quarter. I found this difficult to understand especially since they claimed 80% market share in the HBT market. I came to the conclusion that their future then must be in the display area primarily. That area is intensely competitive with many patents that are usually cross licensed (at least among the Japanese firms). As far as I know (which is not very far!), Kopin's method of building the display is unique. My understanding is that it was based on Si, if so I'm wondering why it is transparent. I want to comment on several of the discontinuous innovations you mentioned. So discontinuous innovations include 1) Wafer Engineering Technology to produce a 3D IC via Atomic level layering 2) Lift Off Technology to Produce AMLCD and Smart Cards 3) Unique patented color generation 4) Single Crystal Integrated Circuits that are transparent 5) Displacement of filters, reduction in pixels in AMLCD 6) Displacement of traditional viewfinders in video cameras and other handhelds 7) Increased battery life in both products 8) The gigabyte transmission of data over GaAs HBT IC The first one about 3D devices was probably discontinuous about 20 years ago. Most of the GaAs industry employes something called MBE(Molecular Beam Epitaxy)to build up different layers. This in principle (along with other techniques) permits a 3D structure. I haven't reviewed their patents so it may be they have blocked out certain applications using this technique. That may give them a strategic advantage, but I'm not sure that I would say it is discontinuous. What is your thought on this? Secondly the "lift off technique" has been know for probably 25-30 years. This may be a new application, but I think it may fall into the same category as the above. Did you review the patents and if so was there something unique in them that leads you to believe this application of lift off might be discontinuous? If you can give me the number, I'd be willing to review it. From your research, can you make any projections about the timing of profitability and the ramp rate? I think they are in the right spaces: Telecom and Displays, to have huge volumes. If they really have superior technology that can be protected, they ought to be able to finally become profitable. TIA, FATBOY

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