Mike -
If you have the print Barron's, look at the Market Watch section on page 62.
In Aeitus Weekly, Jim Griffen makes a clear case for something I alluded to the other day, namely that the measured productivity numbers, far from being a strong support for the bull, are merely the RESULT of growth, not its progenitor.
"...The productivity numbers we rejoice in are, simply, a ratio of an estimate of GDP to an estimate of hours worked..."
"...When output rises faster than inputs, productivity generates all-star statistics. But there are no time and motion studies, no engineering data, behind the productivity numbers - just a couple of index numbers of dubious precision, despite their painstaking 'estimation'. And because output changes tend to be more volatile than employment-dominated input changes, productivity varies closely with GDP. In effect, the official productivity numbers are an echo of the GDP report..."
Regards, Don |
