jhg,
First I have to admit I was far from being anticipating rambus would close that high in the first quarter 2000.
She did it well...
BUT considering that there are still some very positive news to come out in the following months I would certainly not sell now (I mean if I wasn't that long on rambus).
Here are few ones and probably Glenn or some other will add additional reasons :
- Communications announcement not yet out: Tate said during the first quarter, did not see or hear anything about it.
- Eddelstone : This guy has to speak very soon, can not keep a target of 125 usd (from memory) while this stock reached and held the 350-400 range. Though I am bit anxious about that announcement I do not believe that a 12 months target could be lower than 500 (considering the closing of Friday this wouldn't a so good news but I dare not to expect much more from him who has been burned once in September 99)
- New analysts coverages: Rambus hits CNBC every day for one month now and no new analysts covering it. Their customers probably heard about Rambus and will ask them their take on this stock which roared endlessly for one month...
- PS2 earnings : the earnings related to the sales made last week on the PS2 launch, will not be reported before July (third quarter of the Rambus fiscal year ending Sept 2000). I believe this is not totally factored in the price stock yet. Then the US and Europe launch should be preceded by (I hope so) a huge interest of all the financial, games and people magazines putting rambus in the limelight in her own country. Should be very positive for the stock price.
- Micron in (mass ?) production : This will send a strong message to the whole industry. Micron is (has been, recently they declared to be agnostic;-) ) the DDR most powerful sponsor (I might be wrong on that statement). When they start to mass product RDRAM, then you get the most obvious sign that Rambus will become dominant.
- New product from Intel : Willamette, Timna. X-Box is probably a non event being foreseen to launch end 2001, far to late to be a competitor to PS2, but have seen many posts where a RAM with 6.4Gherts/sec. is reported, what else can do that but RDRAM in the near future, as far as I know nothing (may be some tech. can confirm)
- 6.4Gherzt: To be implemented this summer.
- Hitachi : The longer it takes to Hitachi to communicate officially on the lawsuit the more positive it is.
I have no idea about the effect an off-trial settlement about this patent infringement could have on the stock price. Considering I never expected, buying Rambus, to get any money from patent infringement lawsuit I prefer to consider the effect to be ZERO, this wouldn't true, I leave estimates to your own appreciation.
- Rambus to buy IP companies: Considering her recent market cap. could see this earlier than expected.
- Market Cap over 10 Billions usd : This is not anymore an Up-start and should get some benefit form it.
Conclusion : I do not believe Rambus be overvalued yet, my short term target price is 600 the day of the 4:1 split.
No I'd were you I wouldn't sell
BUT
This is only my Humble Opinion and I am interested to read the other's one.
FWIW
Orion |
