MOT and NOK feel they are protecting their profits, but it is inevitable that MOT and NOK will loose their ASIC business to QCOM, as the box makers flocked to INTC. They are holding out, but the the basic business principles of "economy of scale" and "outsourcing" will force capitulation. Mot has already headed down the road of no return, and the handwriting is on the wall. More and more of MOT's business will come QCOM's way until it is a given that they become their sole supplier of ASIC's.
NOK on the other hand, is dying to reinvent the wheel as did ERICY to avoid the royalty, and that "Europeon pride" thingy. Unfortunately for them, QCOM has the patents on "round" and whether you call it a Goodyear(w-CDMA) or a Michilin, its still a round wheel.
As a side note, my wife and I both work for carriers. Just so happens, her employer's wireless network is TDMA and mine is CDMA. Uniquely, we have used both for extended periods. There is no comparison. TDMA is inferior to CDMA from the users prospective. I currently utilize over 2,000 minutes a month, which comes out to about 100 mobile minutes a business day, or a little over an hour and a half each day. I am immune to isolated service areas because I roam extensively.
IMO, CDMA will dominate wireless and QCOM is the economic solution for MOT and NOK. Mot's already in the pool and NOK will face dire economic consequences if they hold out much longer. They are wasting time and resources to create what already exists.....
As another side, one of my clients is an ex-executive of Bellsouth Mobility, and we had a few drinks after the GTE Classic a few weeks ago. We began to discuss the stock market. I knew his background and I was real curious about his views on CDMA vs TDMA, so I mentioned QCOM. I was quite shocked to learn he owned the "Q"!!! He understood the superiority of the technology and felt BS made a major blunder going with TDMA, which he stated was done under the influence of a consulting firm out of Germany.
Kent |
