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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: rel4490 who wrote (19953)	3/12/2000 11:12:00 PM
From: rel4490	Read Replies (1) of 54805

More comments from Moore: From: "Geoffrey Moore" <geoffmoore@chasmgroup.com> Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2000 14:26:21 -0800 Gang, Let me set some parameters that might help in discussing a stock like Healtheon. This stock from birth has been an "internet play." It had high visibility from Jim Clark's backing and was "declared" the winner from the outset. Everyone "knows" it has to win. Being the contrarian I am, this just reminds me of OS/2. But let me first make the case for this strategy. Internet market success is based on winner-take-all outcomes in major markets. Partners and customers are extremely sensitive to market cap as an indicator of which company to go with. If you can get out ahead in the market cap war, in other words, you actually increase your odds of success. Moreover, even if you are a total house of cards at the outset, you can acquire companies that can get you the substance you need to backfill your baloney. Thus there is a very good chance that a "big lie" strategy well executed can actually create global domination. That being said, I think that Healtheon will bust its pick on the medical market because the market does not lend itself to an Internet blitzkrieg attack. I think it will play out like Napoleon attacking Russia or Hitler's invasion of same in a later century, with the campaign being vicotrious in battle after battle but ultimately losing the war. But that is clearly a personal opinion based on a strategic metaphor (which is pretty much what most of what I say and think is), so one should not take this as an investment-grade analysis in any sense. Cheers, Geoff

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