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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: crazyoldman who wrote (98317)3/13/2000 8:06:00 PM
From: Petz  Read Replies (1) of 1572099
 
crazyoldman, WOW, thanks for the link! Insider Drew Prairie says $1B is in the bag. I was already figuring it was, but its good to see semi-official confirmation.

So if earnings were $70.8M on revenues of $968.7M, how much of that $31.3M (minimum) extra will flow to the bottom line?

From JC's conference call "transcriptish" jc-news.com, here's how expenses were supposed to change:
1. R&D up $12.5M
2. Net interest expense up by $6.1M
3. Depreciation probably up by $10M Q1 to reach $600M for year
4. MG&A expense (marketing, general, administrative) - I'm guessing, but I think DOWN $10M or so. (The Athlon TV commericals were in Q4)
5. Cost of Sales (product costs) - probably flat -- Athlons move to more efficient 0.18 process, but there's more of them compared to cheap K6x.
6. FASL joint development is supposed to swing from $1.2M loss to $1M gain.

So, a $1B quarter supports earning of $85.7M
(70.8+31.3-12.5-6.1-10+10+2.2), or 0.56/share. I don't think Drew would have promised $1B unless revenues would be at least $30M above that, which would make earnings of 0.76.

According to my calculation it would take revenues of $1070M to reach $1.00 per share. I'll submit my official EPS contest entry to Goutama soon.

Petz
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