Greg, well, we have Larry Dudash on this thread who with inane sophism refuses to either fall in love or in hate with this stock, we also had visits from Carl R who often had nice things (and good profits on the long side) to say, sure there are perennial bears, but they are like Iranians "fundamentalists", they look only at the then visible fundamentals numbers. I think that their error was misjudging the importance of the deal with TXN, that deal which actually let MU survive in the market niche they were, kind of doomed to play in. The fundamental fact that as long as the DRAM business is a commodity business, it is going to be a "difficult" business, is still there, but like many other cyclical commodity business they have their cycles of tight supplies and excessive profit margins, followed invariably by period of excess capacity and razor thin or vanishing margins. So far, MU has managed to play that game skillfully, and as I said few months back, by hook or by crook, they will repair their balance sheet once the forced conversion is on, reopening access to the debt markets and thus a lease on life. If they survive the next down cycle, they may actually flourish thereafter, IMHTO.
Zeev |
