Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: nextrade! who wrote (46288)	3/13/2000 11:44:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 94695

nextrade, the credit bubble that exists alongside the bubble in financial assets, is actually old hat. it's the main reason why an economic downturn could turn into a real disaster... i don't want to sound too gloomy, but $5 in fresh credit are needed for every $1 in GDP growth...and the GDP growth data are spurious due to hedonic pricing to boot. that's an accident waiting to happen... there's a giant amount of dollar based short term debt outstanding that needs to be rolled over every 6 months or so. why do you think Summers is constantly repeating his strong dollar mantra? a crisis in confidence could quickly snowball. underneath all the prosperity is a monstrous amount of debt. the Fed is printing money so fast, it makes your head spin. the beast needs to be fed, every day. just watch what happens whenever they 'forget' to do a several billion dollar repo. the stock market tanks immediately, every time. they are trapped by the bubble...they have allowed the imbalances to become too big. just look at the current account, a 400 billion deficit last year. it's a giant moloch that's been created. funny enough, no-one worries officially about these things. if anybody worried about them we'd have a wall of worry to climb, but complacency rules the day unfortunately. o.k., i'm worrying...<g> regards, hb

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