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Gold/Mining/Energy : Fantom Technologies (TSE:FTM)

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To: Samir Jhaveri who wrote (51)3/14/2000 9:09:00 AM
From: Marcman  Read Replies (1) of 55
 
Sam,

The reason for the current price is because revenue and earnings for FTM have become stagnant. EPS for the last couple Q have hovered at $.40. This means the year will end with earnings of around $1.60/share while analysts were forecasting $1.80. As a result, the price has suffered. Carrying this forward, it seems the company will have a hard time meeting analysts' forecasts of $2.05 EPS for next year as well.

The reason the company has given for revenue and earnings stagnation is that the bagless vacuum market has become very competitive. Considering that FTM is a vacuum manufacturer, that is worrisome -- EXCEPT this company has an ace up its sleeve.

The new Fantom Coutnertop Water Filtration System is coming at absolutely the right time for this company. With the tight nature of the vacuum market, and the steady growth of filtered and bottled water sales. I think FTM is on to something and is adding the right product at the right time. I have no idea of the price, but I suspect this product will do well. Analysts are expecting it to add .17 per share in earnings in its first year. That alone should add $2-$3 to the share price.

That said, I think the company represents real value right now. ON a PE of 10, the company should be at least $16. On a PE of 15, it should be $24. With earnings from the new product line, $26-$28 is not out fo the question within a year.

I owned FTM two years ago and sold for a profit when it spiked at one time. I haven't owned the stock since. I have a buy order in today because at these prices, the stock represents real value.

GLTUA,
Marcman
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