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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Kirk © who wrote (12459)3/14/2000 12:20:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (3) of 15132
 
Kirk: Re: " I have to admit that your mimicking the Brikerbots that bash anyone on his site that doesn't agree with Brinker is not attractive. Are you trying to win an award?"

Yes, but strictly a cash award to add to my pile.

Re: "One thing about JoeB, unlike Bob. He WAS able to predict the NASDAQ would outperform."

Gee, I seem to remember Brinker saying that the Naz would set new highs back in October and show great relative strength. I am sure he did not expect this.

But neither did Batman. He just ups his target as the Naz goes up. But then he says if the Fed. is targeting the market then all bets are off. In other words, if Greenspan means what he says then all bets are off. I don't want to take that chance that the Greenman means what he is saying.

Re: " I guess he looks at more than just the ever changing S&P500. It seems he uses the PEG ratio that I have been writing about on my site for some time. The Motley Fools were talking about the PEG ratio back when they hosted MoneyTalk and I got bashed here for saying I liked some of the things they had to say. Bob did not talk about earnings growth until very recently after he missed "Market Timing" the NASDAQ out performance."

Try GAAP instead of PEG. GAAP = "Growth at any price."

Re: "Joe B has said recently that he thinks the DJIA will outperform (go to 12,500 and the NAS will go to 6000) this year. Seems Joe sees better value in the DOW."

Go with Joe then. And if the Naz goes to 6,000 next week Joe will up his target to 7,000 and so on. So what has changed fundamentally from two months or so again to warrant another 20% in NAZ valuation? Nothing but the momentum.

Re: "His jawboning works...look at all of you "fearless traders" that went to cash!"

Not too many in cash from what I can see. Certainly very few will admit it. After all, they will then open to jabs from the Naz high rollers. The intelligent trader knows when the odds of success have changed and will make appropriate adjustments given his circumstances. I made my killing and have made room at the table for others. But the house has just about told anyone who steps up that the odds have have increased against you as an investor and speculator
for that matter.

A tax equivalent yield in this environment of 10% to 12% with the strong possibility of capital gains seems good enough to me. But some want more. And maybe they will get it. And I sleep well knowing that I don't have to take the risk now.

Re: "My guess is he looks at the "wealth effect" which would mean ALL stocks meaning the Wilshire5000. Guess what? That seems to be growing at about his target rate."

That is your best point of the day. Sure seems like the Wilshire 5000 could be his target. But nobody can disagree that a blow-off move in the Naz could turn out to be an "imbalance" in the economy. But if you think the Wilshire 5000 will do only 6.5% from this point, then I am looking right smart with my decision. Thank you.

Re: "People will continue to invest smarter than others and make more money by finding the hot sectors for growth before the masses. Then they take profits or use tight stops while the dumb money pours in (usually thru mutual funds). Then the insane run-up ends and it happens again in another sector. So what? As long as the overall average (VTSMX) goes up at a modest level, the wealth effect should be contained. Smart people will always make more than dumb people...why fight it?"

I am not fighting it at all. I think this is great and wish you well and this may be the "new" environment for wealth transfer if your description of "smart" and "dumb" money is accurate. But maybe you should consider not fighting my thinking on going to cash and bonds for now. There is room in the market for both of us.
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