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March 14, 2000
Bush Maintains Slim Lead in Presidential Race
Previous McCain supporters choose Bush by a small margin
by Jeffrey M. Jones
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The Super Tuesday primary elections are now history, and the race for president has been winnowed to two major party candidates -- Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll shows that Bush continues to lead Al Gore by a slim 49% to 43% margin among likely November voters, a gap generally consistent with previous trial heat match-ups from earlier this year. These results suggest no major shakeup in the structure of the race has occurred with the withdrawal of Bill Bradley and the suspension of the campaign of John McCain.
With possible Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan included in the mix, Bush still leads Gore (47% to 43%) with Buchanan registering only 6% support.
Many McCain Supporters Moving to Bush
The biggest development coming out of Super Tuesday was John McCain's decision to suspend his upstart campaign. Throughout the primary season, McCain attracted support from a broad range of the electorate. As a result of his appeal to Independents and Democrats, McCain held a wider lead over Gore than did Bush. Now that his campaign is over, one big question remains: How will previous McCain supporters sort themselves out? The new poll shows that Bush gains a few more of the McCain supporters than does Gore, but not by a large margin. Among likely voters who admitted they were previously supporting McCain for president, 50% now say they would vote for Bush, while 42% are now siding with Gore in a two-way race (8%) are unsure). In a three-way matchup including Buchanan, previous McCain supporters still prefer Bush (47%) to Gore (41%) with Buchanan a distant third (7%).
Still, despite the fact that a popular candidate like McCain is no longer in the race, 71% of those polled said "yes" when asked if there is a candidate running this year that "you think would make a good president." That number is only slightly lower than it was in January of this year, and remains higher than the responses obtained in January of 1992 (only 40% said yes) and in May of 1996 (57% said yes at that time).
Strength of Candidates' Support
How likely is Bush to maintain his slim lead? The new poll asked voters about the level of commitment to their preferred candidate. Among Bush voters, 42% said there was "no chance whatsoever" that they would vote for Gore in November. Fifteen percent said it was possible they might switch their loyalties to Gore. Gore voters are slightly less certain in their choice; 37% say there is no chance they would vote for Bush in the general election, but 13% say there is a possibility they might vote for the Texas governor. Examining this information in combination with preferences in the trial-heat matchup, we can gauge the strength of support for each candidate. About four in ten voters (41%) can be considered "strong" Bush supporters (prefer Bush now and would not vote for Gore), 9% are "weak" Bush supporters (prefer Bush but may vote for Gore), 13% are potential Bush supporters (prefer Gore but may vote for Bush) and 37% can be ruled out (support Gore and would not vote for Bush). Gore has less strong support than Bush (34%), and nearly the same amount of weak (9%) and potential support (15%) that Bush has. This analysis suggests that the election result will be determined by which candidate can win over the 20-25% of voters who do not strongly support one candidate or the other.
Finally, it is interesting to note that Bush, in addition to owning his slight lead over Gore among likely voters, also has a perceptual edge as a winner. Among US adults, a near-majority say that they expect that George W. Bush will emerge victorious in November (48%), while only 38% think Gore will do so.
Survey Methods
The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults, 18 years and older, conducted March 10-12, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE:] Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
Al Gore George W. Bush Other (vol.) No opinion
% % % %
Likely Voters
(LV) 2000 Mar 10-12 43 49 1 7
(LV) 2000 Feb 25-27 43 52 * 5
(LV) 2000 Feb 20-21 45 50 * 5
(LV) 2000 Feb 14-15 45 50 * 5
(LV) 2000 Feb 4-6 44 53 0 3
(LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 42 53 * 5
(LV) 2000 Jan 13-16 38 57 1 4
(LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 43 52 * 5
Registered Voters
(RV) 2000 Mar 10-12 44 49 1 6
(RV) 2000 Feb 25-27 44 51 * 5
(RV) 2000 Feb 20-21 44 51 * 5
(RV) 2000 Feb 14-15 46 48 * 6
(RV) 2000 Feb 4-6 45 51 * 4
(RV) 2000 Jan 25-26 44 51 -- 5
(RV) 2000 Jan 17-19 41 53 * 6
(RV) 2000 Jan 13-16 41 52 1 6
(RV) 2000 Jan 7-10 44 51 * 5
(RV) 1999 Dec 20-21 42 53 * 5
(RV) 1999 Dec 9-12 42 55 * 3
(RV) 1999 Nov 18-21 40 56 * 4
National Adults
(NA) 1999 Nov 18-21 39 56 * 5
(NA) 1999 Nov 4-7 40 55 * 5
(NA) 1999 Oct 21-24 43 52 * 5
(NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 40 56 * 4
(NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 37 55 * 8
(NA) 1999 Sep 10-14 39 56 * 5
(NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 41 55 * 4
(NA) 1999 Jul 16-18 38 55 * 7
(NA) 1999 Jun 25-27 41 56 * 3
(NA) 1999 Jun 4-5 40 56 * 4
(NA) 1999 May 23-24 40 54 * 6
(NA) 1999 Apr 30-May 2 40 56 * 4
(NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 38 59 * 3
(NA) 1999 Mar 12-14 41 56 * 3
(NA) 1999 Mar 5-7 41 56 * 3
(NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 43 54 * 3
(NA) 1999 Jan 8-10 47 48 * 5
(NA) 1998 May 8-10 46 50 * 4
Now suppose that the year 2000 presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore as the Democratic candidate, George W. Bush as the Republican candidate, and political commentator, Pat Buchanan, as the Reform Party candidate. Would you vote for -- [ROTATE 1-3: 1) Al Gore, the Democrat, 2) George W. Bush, the Republican, 3) Patrick Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate]?
As of today do you lean toward [ROTATE:] Gore, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, or Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate?
Al Gore George W. Bush Pat Buchanan (vol.) Other(vol.) No opinion
% % % % %
Likely Voters
(LV) 2000 Mar 10-12 43 47 6 1 3
(LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 42 50 5 * 3
Registered Voters
(RV) 2000 Mar 10-12 44 45 5 2 4
(RV) 2000 Jan 7-10 41 49 6 * 4
National Adults
(NA) 1999 Oct 21-24 42 48 5 -- 5
(NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 38 51 9 -- 2
(NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 37 49 9 -- 5
Previous McCain Supporters Choice for President
Likely Voters (n=296)
Bush 50%
Gore 42
Unsure 8
100%
Bush 47%
Gore 41
Buchanan 7
Unsure 5
100%
(If Non-Gore voter, Q. 2 '2,4' or Q. 2A '2-6') Is there any chance you would vote for Al Gore in the November election or is there no chance whatsoever that you would vote for him?
(Non-Bush voters) Is there any chance you would vote for George W. Bush in the November election or is there no chance whatsoever that you would vote for him?
GORE VOTER GROUP SUMMARY:
Strong Gore Weak Gore Potential Gore No chance whatsoever
% % % %
Likely Voters
(LV) 2000 Mar 10-12 34 9 15 42
(LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 29 12 14 45
(LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 32 11 13 44
BUSH VOTER GROUP SUMMARY:
Strong Bush Weak Bush Potential Bush No chance whatsoever
% % % %
Likely Voters
(LV) 2000 Mar 10-12 41 9 13 37
(LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 43 10 15 32
(LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 41 10 15 34
Regardless of who you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November - [ROTATED Al Gore (or) George W. Bush]?
Al Gore George W. Bush OTHER No opinion
% % % %
2000 Mar 10-12
National Adults 38 48 * 14
Likely Voters 39 47 * 14
Copyright¸ 2000 - The Gallup Organization
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