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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Elmer who wrote (98401)3/15/2000 12:09:00 AM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (3) of 1582939
 
Re: AMD would need to find customers for those additional units... (in reference to speculation about AMD capacity approaching 25M units/quarter)

Agreed - which is why I posted that even half that number would be "spectacular". It all depends on how long AMD can manage to offer an extra 100MHZ at the medium and upper price points (which is where I think they need to be to continue to gain market share rapidly).

So far, so good. AMD strategy for the second half seems to be moving to Austin Spitfire up to (and including) 1GHZ to compete with PIII. Dresden Thunderbird 1.1GHZ and above to compete with PIV (Willamette). I would expect decent volume of Willamette by late Q3, certainly for Q4 (Intel can sandbag too). But Dresden parts look likely to be able to keep up - Thunderbird/Mustang should be a marginally less scalable architecture chip produced on a marginally more scalable process.

With 30% of the CPU market total revenue, AMD could could have total (including flash, etc.) Q4 sales of $2.5 Billion and profits of $1 Billion - for the quarter. And AMD's float is around 150 million shares. If momentum kicks in, the stock could make a run at $1,000 a share. And all this without doing any noticeable damage to Intel.

Dan
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