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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Dan3 who wrote (98505)3/15/2000 12:51:00 AM
From: ptanner  Read Replies (1) of 1582912
 
Dan <With 30% of the CPU market total revenue, AMD could could have total (including flash, etc.) Q4 sales of $2.5 Billion and profits of $1 Billion - for the quarter.>

I am bullish on AMD and their aggressive push into the high-end desktop market but a little reality check on microprocessor unit share:

4Q99 units
AMD 17%
Intel 83%

4Q99 dollar shares much different.
Too lazy/tired to look up real numbers but Intel ASP of $180 and AMD of $80 leads to:

AMD 8.3% in dollar volume
Intel 91.6%

I believe AMD can reach 30% unit market share by the end of 2001 but they will still not have 30% dollar share unless they can also increase their ASP to Intel levels. So far, AMD does have plans to move into the server realm (mustang, 4-way, 8-way etc). Read today that Xeon processors are 15% of MPU revenues for Intel while being only 4% of units.

Sorry about hammering on the $1B profit projection. With the Athlon, TBird, etc. AMD should be able to dramatically raise their ASP and overall profitability. AMD's goal is only $100 ASP! They could possibly reach that this quarter and with the increase in overall volume their net profit has a lot of room for expansion. And while Intel will defend this space, it is also planning to push upwards into a larger share of the server market -- an area that AMD also now plans to move towards as well.

This will all be very interesting to watch.

PT
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