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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Bruce Brown who wrote (20219)	3/15/2000 8:06:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (3) of 54805

Bruce, I'm not going to assume that Siebel is going to have a 'flat' quarter from their previous $170 million in sales... I wouldn't assume anything significantly better than a flat showing. That's because the 4th quarter is typically the biggest quarter for software apps companies, especially front office companies. The seasonal nature of that quarter is not as differentiating from the other quarters as it used to be, but it's still the quarter that salespeople put on the big push to ensure their annual bonus. I didn't take the time to look up Siebel's software sales in Q4 of 1998 and Q1 of 1999, but the total sales for each was $123 million and $134 million, respectively. I'm not an analyst, but the historic trend tells me to expect a similarly small sequential increase of no more than 10% also this time around. --Mike Buckley

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