Putin's Friendly Face Will Not Last
Summary
Acting Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a number of
conciliatory statements toward the West over the past few weeks. In
doing this, Putin not only strengthens his already ironclad
election campaign, but also establishes himself as someone with
whom the West can do business. This will not change facts on the
ground. The West has no desire to assist Russia unless it agrees to
conditions that Putin would never accept. The West will refuse to
make any economic or political concessions to Russia, and as a
result Putin and the Russian leadership will become more vitriolic
than ever.
Analysis
The Times of India reported March 13 that Putin suspended the
transfer of sensitive military technology to China. If true, this
apparently pro-Western move marks another step in acting Russian
President Vladimir Putin's tightrope walk between seeking a less
acidic relationship with the West and catering to Russian
nationalist passions. For the next few months Putin will lean
increasingly toward an open rapprochement, knowing full well that
his attempts will fail. But in failing, he will establish in
Western and Russian eyes the need for a powerful - and by necessity
ruthless - leader in Moscow.
Putin's past actions show he is willing to wield a political stick
both at home and abroad in his efforts to establish Russia as a
strong state with a strong regime. The war in Chechnya - atrocities
and all - vividly demonstrates the lengths to which he will go. His
use of less than polite methods of diplomacy in bringing Georgia
and Ukraine to heel grant a glimpse into what he may one day be
willing to do to increase Russian influence over other areas of the
former Soviet world. His willingness to court former Soviet client
states shows he is willing to adopt riskier - and much more
confrontational - strategies should the West seek to isolate
Russia.
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But in recent weeks Putin has shown a more congenial face. In late
February, Putin forced the Russian security services to release
Radio Free Europe journalist Andrei Babitsky over the protests of
many in the Duma. On March 5 he startled the world by rather
flippantly stating that there was no reason why Russia could some
day join NATO. His March 11 meeting with U.K. Prime Minister Tony
Blair was all sunshine and compliments. On March 13 the Times of
India - the paper of choice for KGB leaks during the Cold War -
cited a report that Putin had suspended the transfer of sensitive
military technology to China. If true, it would be a policy shift
that would be sure to please the United States. As part of a
carefully calculated strategy, the carrot has supplanted the stick.
This kinder, gentler face serves a number of purposes. First, it
provides an olive leaf to Russia's battered liberals and reformers.
The largely pro-Western liberals were soundly trounced in Russia's
Dec. 19 parliamentary elections and participated in the boycott of
the Duma to protest Putin's embracing of the Communists. Making
pro-Western statements could lure liberals into supporting Putin's
presidential bid in the March 26 elections. Putin is already
expected to garner more than 50 percent of the votes and thus
handily defeat the other 11 candidates without need for a second
round of voting; with liberal support, Putin would win a commanding
mandate to boot. This would strengthen Putin's standing both at
home and abroad.
Putin's statements target an international audience as well. Russia
cannot support its current budget without a new source of funding.
First Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov is appealing to
Western governments and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to
agree to both debt forgiveness and new loans. By making
conciliatory statements Putin is helping to pave the path.
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After Putin is elected, there will be a flurry of high-level
meetings as Putin and Western leaders size each other up. Russo-
American and Russo-Japanese summits are already in planning. The
crown jewel of these encounters is the Group of Eight meeting in
Okinawa, Japan, June 21-23. Putin's friendlier face is essential in
his attempts to obtain new loans, technology transfers, foreign
investment and a seat for Russia at international tables. These are
all prizes that Russia desperately needs, and Putin is willing to
make sacrifices to achieve them.
Putin's diplomatic overtures will largely fail, and he knows it -
even expects it. The Russian economy, despite having grown slightly
in 1999, remains corrupted and anemic. The lack of a functioning
legal or banking system and ongoing investigations into money
laundering will keep foreign investment - both public and private -
away. Germany, afraid to lose even more money in the Russian abyss,
will refuse substantial renegotiation of Russia's $43 billion in
debt to the Paris Club, a group of governmental lenders. The
European Union and NATO, both preparing to expand further east,
will continue to turn a partially deaf ear to Russian protests.
Even if the West were committed to salvaging Russia, the task is
now so mammoth that the combined economic might of the West could
well prove insufficient.
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But Putin's openness will establish Russia as the party seeking
closer ties, and the West as the party that rejected the hand of
friendship. This rejection will allow Russia's leader to again -
and justifiably - wield the stick from Moscow. In the months after
the G-8 summit - the locale where the West's rejection will be made
clear - there will be subtle splits within the West. Several states
- such as France - will seek to engage the new face of Russia.
Putin will stretch this policy of smiling, rabid nationalism as
long as he can, on one hand building up Russia's military and
preparing for the worst, and on the other continuing a sporadic
dialog with Washington and Brussels and hoping for the best. The
West is mirroring this policy by simultaneously promoting a greater
cooperation while continuing with NATO and European Union
expansion. This partial engagement - and the partially friendly
face of Russia - cannot last long.
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Putin's support base consists of the military and intelligence
services, covered with a mantle of nationalism. This will certainly
grant Putin the presidency and allow him to carry on the war in
Chechnya, yet neither Putin nor his advisors have managed to
produce a coherent economic plan. Without continued confrontation
and a target for Russian anger, Putin cannot placate the
nationalists. Without economic recovery primed by foreign
investment, he cannot disarm them. Eventually, the nationalist
avalanche Putin started will overtake him, possibly even bury him,
and the West can do nothing to help. The aftermath will feature an
embittered Russia that the West spurned - and a leader with a very
large stick.
(c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. stratfor.com
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