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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla Game Investing in the eWorld
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (1589)3/15/2000 11:17:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake  Read Replies (1) of 1817
 
<<for me part of the due diligence is to realize when I as an investor am more out of control of the situation than need be.>>

Agreed. That is why I always said that doing TA on biotechs is so difficult - they are so extremely dependent on news, and visibility is so tiny. FDA approves smth - rockets up by 400% - no approval - collapse by 90%. I talk to people who are VERY close to the issues - often at the cutting edge of the science. And you know what? It doesn't help all that much - I may be told that the compound "shows great promise" - but 6 months down the road, you can be told "well, nothing came of it" - and it doesn't matter if the person you talked to is a top scientist in his field. However, what you can anticipate to some degree, is when the SECTOR is hot - a rising tide lifts all boats. You see it - and you take a chance - or you must resign yourself to simply never entering the field (I guess your choice). And you can do very well if the sector is hot. Trouble is, you never know when a piece of news can completely destroy you. You look at the risks, and you try to take a calculated gamble. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. I was just "venting" a bit<ggg>.

Morgan
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