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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.92

+0.1%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (43223)	3/16/2000 1:45:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

>>i expect nas to continue selling off<< I am looking for a short term bounce tomorrow unless the PPI numbers come in real bad. The forecasts are high so they are padding the bets so they can have a lower than expected number. There are still a boatload of QQQ puts below 200 and we are at 205 so they have to bounce it while they can. The OEX puts were also big thus my post yesterday calling for a bounce. I think we get the NASDAQ bounce starting tomorrow then we continue the selling next week. There is no way I would be caught holding over the weekend though. Taiwan elections after a triple witch expiration and an FOMC meeting next week all on a full moon. NO WAAAAY. I'll miss what ever happens. If the nukes stat flying on Sunday, I don't want to be worrying if my broker has a bomb shelter. <ggg> The DOW bounce looks like it could be for real. GE and WMT had possible double bottoms but GM and IBM appear to be forming a possible bearish wedge/pennent. CTXS, BGEN, GTW, all are at technical bounce areas. I don't like the amount of rally though in the most oversold issues of the DOW as they smell of bear rallys but breadth was better than teh past few weeks at least in what I watch. Watch the SPX 1410 resistance, if that shatters we could be heading for 1470. That is the bullish argument. I can feed the bears too though. The R2K made 3 black crows and the weekly chart of the NASDAQ NDX and R2K all have perfect reversals pointing to a lot more selling ahead. Boiled down, I expect a short term bounce through the end of the week, (news permitting) then more selling of the Techs and teh R2K in the following weeks. The DOW could rally more though and just do a mirror image of the diverging markets. I am not convinced on the DOW but I am more bullish on it than I have been for a long time. Good Luck, Lee

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