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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed
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To: MythMan who wrote (17932)3/16/2000 9:39:00 AM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (2) of 42523
 
We needed .4 or more core rate to get real
bearish. Traders must have a lot of faith
in AG and/or view oil as temporary. Oil is
called another 50 cents lower this A.M. but
the 20DMA is still 5.5% higher than a month
ago. Grains are pricing in a drought. The
JOC index is running at a 9% annualized hike
over the last quarter.

Please remember the clowns at least have the
curve inverted. And forget about bonds. Watch
the ten year now for hedging implications.
Part of the bid in notes and bonds has a stock
decline built into it IMHO. We may be at another
tradeoff point between debt and equities...that
is, if equities resume their rally, notes and bonds
drift lower again.

Tomorrow's CPI is expected at .4% with a .2% core.
Probably come in there. Tuesday the Fed bumps its target
up 25 beeps following the ECB's move today and making the
world safe for investors again.-s-

Yet, housing starts and retail sales suggest no slowdown
from Q4 or a least a 5% plus real GDP. Try to hire
anyone lately???? Or buy a house??? If equities charge
the old highs, bond and notes will come off and the
curve should steepen even more. IMHO this is a great
spot to place debt hedges in the ten year since I'm not
satisfied with a 3% real rate or less if equities
ralling again. BWTFDIK.
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