Jon, first I like you to welcome you to this thread and thank you for sharing your experience. I manufacture printed cicuit boards for electric home appliances industries in Europe. When I invest I use various factors, my business experience, the market, the currency, the management, the past performance, the political climate, the rates, the clients, the analyst reports, the sec filings etc. Then I trust my my instict. Fo me instinct is the total sum of 25 years experience in stock market. With all that, I still can not time it!
I have an experince almost identical to your:
One of my major clients is a very large German manufacturer of
electric appliances in Frankfurt. During my last visit I noticed
they were using windows 3.1 and not windows 95. I was very much suprised. When I asked why they are not using window 95, they said
they have 7,200 PC's in various offices and plants, since there is a slow down in Geramny, they have postponed moving to windows 95 until and even upgrading their computer network until the year 1999! Any exception to the rule requires approval of the B/D!!!!
For your information this is a $ 14 billion dollar a year comapny, a large size German industry. This made me think. If a large comapny of this size, is not upgrading becasue they can do with 5 years old technology, what will happen to the Hi Tech and in particular INTC in a economic slow down.
I don't make my analysis in a closed office,and reading tech magazines, I like to make them in action, and this experince made
me wake up.
I manage my family fund. I have 60 percent of the stock equity invested in stocks that make up DJIA, and 40 in Hi Tec.( 10% INT, 10% MSFT, and 5% CSCO.) I don't want to wake up and see the value of 40% of my assets reducted by 50%. I can stomach that for six month to one year, becaue I accept the volitality of hi tech for the return, but I be foolish to go into a bear market, with no end in sight, with such
burden. This is why I hope to have see subscibers like yourself that are interested in maintaing the value of their assets exchange ideas
and share their experince so we all can benefit.
Kind regards,
Yaacov |
