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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Juliet who wrote (20295)3/16/2000 1:26:00 PM
From: Mike 2.0  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Malcom's reply to this article Message 13214825 is a good one. Basically, anyone who has RTFM will be able to dispute the points the author makes. For example, Polaroid is identified specifically in TFM as a closed technology that earned Polaroid truckloads of cash in its day. But using TFM logic you would never have bought the stock. You would have to have your head in the sand to not see new, open technologies (increasingly cheap but good point-and-click 35 mm cameras, camcorders and later digital cameras) quickly eat Polaroid's lunch. AFAIK most of their revenues are from Xray imaging not instant cameras, a technology in the final end of the technology cycle. The future for the stock was NOT bright when analyzing the stock based on TFM principles. I suspect some smart apples out there realized this and shorted Polaroid at the pinnacle!

Similarly IBM was no buy to anyone making a GG analysis of the PC market. IBM PCs were off the scales in absurd price points compared to new vendors like Dell and Gateway. Nuff said.

The author's message that a company has a tougher time generate long-term double-digit earnings growth when it makes big-cap status holds true only if arrogant, naive management is "managing" the business. Here too, TFM is clear that the Ciscos, Microsofts and Intels today are not the Polaroids and IBMs of an earlier era.

BWDIK? After all, the author IS from Wharton you know ;-)
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