> Anyway, cash is going back in to the market. <
I wish I could be confident of that!
I have more questions than opinions -- on yet another non-boring day.
Perhaps individual biotechs have recovered somewhat.
But I see no discernable pattern as yet, except that
- big pharma seems upturned across the board.
- (so far) most bios are still above their pre-rally prices, some more than others -- with intrinsic value not apparently a factor in the results.
Looking at the attached stack of 5-day charts, I'm not ready to call a bottom to this biotech crash. It's *easy* to catch an intra-day super-low -- that goes way lower the next day.
The panic seems as irrational as the former exuberance.
The degree of punishment/recovery seems to bear no relationship to
- the fundamentals of the companies or
- the value of recently obtained enabling capital (Celg, Cege, Tgen ... )
Do momentum traders know, remember, or even care about these distinctions?
While they're around, is rational valuation possible?
Can we have a big rally without them?
Do *average* investors (and "analysts") know/remember these distinctions?
If people invest in what they understand, will average investors ever pile into emerging bios enough to sustain a rally ? --or even sustain fair prices for intellectual property?
Is the momo crowd being replaced by institutional investors and mutual funds getting into (some) bios on the cheap -- so that after the dust settles we can continue long-term investing on a new higher-ground playing field?
------------------------------------------
Last 5 days of some small, medium bios
- finance.yahoo.com
- Lots of red at this moment, and the black gains are mostly measured in sixteenths and thirty-seconds.
- Yes, Sepragen's a star.
- But CEGE -- down more again today, to 26 5/8. Why? Where's the LOGIC??
- CELG 114 -- great company, great promise, great cash pile.
------Gawd, i'm glad i got out at 172! And didn't re-enter prematurely ...
Various SI threads are a big help in attempting to sort out value -- and *long* term a diverse basket of innovative biotechs makes sense to me. But for the short/mid term, I feel clue-less about how/WHEN/WHERE the dust will settle ...
Here's hoping AACR and ASCO provide some direction and/or relief ...
Rambling and ranting fizzling out ...
Regards,
Cheryl
-------------------------------------------------
5 days of 2 niche pharmas, plus Big Pharmas
- finance.yahoo.com |
