Novell one of Redherring's 3 "Retro Stocks" for 2000
Three retro stocks for 2000
By R. Scott Raynovich
Redherring.com, March 16, 2000
No, they are not flashy dot-com companies with 22-year-old executives. In fact, you may cringe when you hear some of the names of our "Retro Stocks." But the recent comebacks of Apple Computer (Nasdaq: AAPL), Macromedia (Nasdaq: MACR), and Novell (Nasdaq: NOVL) warrant watching in 2000.
Public investors seem to have grown myopic in the last year, as the attention span of the industry has been focused on a period of days, rather than years. For many of the freshly-minted IPOs, markets have built-in valuations that assume rocket-ship growth for four or five years in a row. But does anybody really believe the tech landscape will look the same in 2005 as it does today? Silicon Valley, or any technology hotbed for that matter, always has been subject to transitory trends whose subtle shifts can bankrupt a company overnight.
In such a market, a turnaround -- whose value might be somewhat discounted because of stock-ticker brand damage inflicted by past crashes -- may offer an opportunity. As the swarms of momentum investors gather upon the next Infospace.com (Nasdaq: INSP) or Phone.com (Nasdaq: PHCM), more sane individuals might be looking at more stable companies with large revenue bases and a turnaround story. Once a turnaround company adjusts itself to a new marketplace, they are in many cases discounted against the fledgling competition, even though they may have a raft of technological talents and resources that can be adapted to the new markets. And the veterans often have the most important resources -- an installed base of loyal customers --that can be used to accelerate a comeback.
We picked the three companies that exemplify classic Silicon Valley turnaround stories: Apple Computer, Novell, and Macromedia. All have disappointed investors at some point in the past. Yet all three managed to hang on to their loyal installed base and technology in the grim years, giving them a substantial base to redirect toward Internet growth opportunities. In recent months, the market has started to recognize the potential for all three of these companies, as their stock charts show the clear V pattern of a turnaround story.
Do these stocks carry risk? Well, of course. A bet on a turnaround is in its very nature a vote for the underdog. But when you compare the risk of owning an established technology veteran such as Novell or Apple, both profitable companies with top-line revenues approaching $10 billion, with a newbie that trades at price-to-sales ratio approaching 100-to-1 and no profit in sight, the risk seems reasonable. Sure, you might not want to stack your technology portfolio with technology retread stories, but it certainly couldn't hurt to look at a few of the turnarounds and watch their progress over time. If the long-awaited technology correction comes, these companies, battle-scarred as they are, may have more experience in surviving a shakeout. |
