STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update 17 March 2000
Summary
U.S. President Bill Clinton will travel to South Asia March 19-25 -the first visit of a U.S. President to India in 22 years. Despite lofty references to a new chapter in Washington-New Delhi ties, India and the United States enter into the meeting from divergent positions. India intends to increase investment and hopes to re-establish itself as a key regional and international player. The United States wants to open India's markets, discuss nuclear proliferation and Kashmir, and pre-empt Chinese or Russian influence in South Asia. Given the wide range of issues on the table, substantial progress is unlikely.
Analysis
U.S. President Bill Clinton is traveling to India, Bangladesh and Pakistan March 19-25. It will be the first visit of a U.S. president to India in 22 years - and the most extensive ever. Characterizing the visit, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said Clinton "will seek to begin a new chapter in [U.S.] relations." But the mission will likely yield little; the countries' positions and goals differ greatly, and they both bestow different levels of importance to the visit.
Relations between the United States and India, strained throughout the Cold War, have improved little following the collapse of the Soviet Union. India, a key member of the non-aligned movement,later signed a friendship treaty with the Soviet Union. Relations with Washington remained strained as India took on the role of spokesman for developing nations, chiding Western nations for perpetuating economic colonialism.
Washington perceives India as fundamentally little more than a developing nation - albeit a very large one. It continues to view India as a prize to be won in order to counter the similar competing interests of Russia and China. Thus in talks and negotiations, the United States accords India a lower status than when dealing with nations like China or Russia.
India, however, has clearly shown it wishes to be treated as equal to other regional powers; it has shunned advances from China and maintained a distance from Russia.
This fundamental difference underlies and hinders Washington-New Delhi relations. Clinton's visit represents one of a great power to a minor nation. The U.S. agenda includes opening India's telecom markets to U.S. businesses, obtaining India's pledge to end nuclear testing and bringing stability to the Kashmir region. India views the talks as an opportunity to garner greater U.S. investment, easier access for Indian workers to the United States and the respect due a growing regional power.
Isolated by deserts and mountains, India is nonetheless militarily and economically well positioned, straddling the sea route between the Middle East and Asia. India now asserts its independence after years of being constrained by Cold War animosities among China, Russia and the United States.
New Delhi has already shown clear resolve to reject treatment as a pawn in the multi-player game. India's nuclear tests in 1998, which strained relations with Washington, broadcast India's importance to the world, as well as to Pakistan. Despite this, the United States continues to treat India as a lesser priority to China.
U.S. imports from India in 1998 amounted to less than 12 percent of those from China, according to U.S. trade data. Exports to India amounted to just 25 percent of those to China. Further, U.S. foreign direct investment to India in the financial year to March 1999 was barely 12 percent of that invested in China, according to an Indo-American Chamber of Commerce official cited by Agence France Presse. For India, as one of the world's largest democratic nations, it is an insult that Washington apparently has a greater interest in relations with communist China.
Clinton's visit to India will likely be frustrating and
disappointing, accentuating the apparent friendliness of Pakistan during his brief stopover. Already claiming Clinton's Pakistan visit as a victory over India, Islamabad will willingly discuss Kashmir with Washington.
It is yet to be seen whether India will succeed in its goals to be treated as an equal among Asia's powers. However, New Delhi's determination to assert its status will clash with Washington's moves to recruit India as a subordinate South Asian ally. Clinton's visit will likely accomplish little, considering the widely differing perceptions of its importance.
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