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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed

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To: MythMan who wrote (18563)3/17/2000 10:18:00 AM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (1) of 42523
 
Nah, I sold my AMAT puts a little early
but got a triple on them. Same with the
CSCO and DELL puts. Didn't make quite as
much on the INTC puts but I know I made
more than KIS did on his psuedo-half-his-NW-call play.

Unfortunately, I'm giving some back on Mar OEX puts
which I "just had to buy" given the incredible runup
yesterday and complete capitulation by the bears. I
also have some Apr OEX puts which will probably expire
worthless.

Now I have a "confession" to make: I actually bought
some stock yesterday. Namely, NT, SDLI, JDSU, NXTL,
HLIT and AMAT. Not a lot but just enough to participate
in yesterday's rally and offset the OEX puts. I'm afraid
the Fed will only bump up the target rate by only 25bps
since they are so fearful of lags. They should do 50 bps
of course but 25 bps will send this market skyrocketing
while 50 bps may only slow it down.

I'm not in love with these equities. I used to own a lot
more of them but dumped them after huge gains in August '99
only to watch the broadband plays triple and quadruple
after that. I'll pick another spot to play the downside
but not now, not here. Selected stocks, 65% notes/munis,
real estate and cash are my strategies now.

I thought this week had an inflection point with downward
implications but got the 1st and 2nd derivatives wrong.<g>
As we get past the Fed next week and the OPEC meeting
Mar.27, I don't see where a negative balance of data can
impact this incredibly bullish euphoria. Can't bet
on China/Taiwan problems or appropriately-placed Iridium
meteorites. The bull appears alive until the white of
inflation's eyes comes bearing upon it. That may not
come to pass until May and the old highs are approached.
BWTFDIK.
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