Yeah 17 years holding SFE makes me a daytrader <vbg>.
I think I'm a better indicator of SFE as a long term holder than a day trader would be, having seen the patterns over a long period. And in all that time, I've only sold it on 3 occasions. Once I was margin-called out of my taxable account (yes, I wish I had those shares back, but those were black days and I couldn't free up the $$ to buy back in -- BTW that was in the high 20s/low30s not that long ago). The second time I sold was in Dec. 1999 when it ran crazy before the end of the year. I bought back in by January. The third time was today. Make of it what you want. Either I'm getting trigger crazy, or I'm finally wising up to pulling out strategically when there are no tax implications. I almost sold at 120 two years ago, and wish I had. Would have been able to buy in at 60-80 only a month or two later.
SFE has *always* followed major runs and DSSPs/Rts with a pullback. I expect we're in a new space for SFE, but some things won't change. Also, post-split depression will simply bring this pullback to the front burner. With 75-80% of my entire holdings in SFE, (and pushing toward 90% the way it's been going) I just thought it was prudent to tone it down a bit. That part was personal, and has nothing to do with daytrading, my thoughts on the stock, or market mechanics.
As always, I remain an SFE fan. I do *not* think that being in for every DSSP is as important as holding a larger position in SFE, and since I DO think it's going to fall back 10-15% soon (not to mention that April is almost always the peak for tech stocks for the period of Jan through Sept). I don't buy stocks for the dividend. I'll play for more shares when I buy back in. My money says we'll see 260-265. (maybe even 240-250 as a low point. Then we'll start to climb back towards 300-350 and beyond. All of it in the year 2000. You heard it here first. Well maybe not first, but you heard it here. |
