First steps by Taiwan's Chen key - HK commentators
By Mishi Saran
HONG KONG, March 18 (Reuters) - Hong Kong commentators on Saturday awaited first moves by presidential election winner Chen Shui-bian to get a feel for how relations will develop between China and Taiwan.
``Beijing will not declare war, not yet,' said Ma Lik, a Hong Kong deputy to China's National People's Congress, as news emerged from Taipei that the independence-leaning Chen had won the election.
``I think what Chen Shui-bian does, his next step will be very very important,' Ma said.
``He must persuade Beijing that he will not declare Taiwan to be independent and that he wants to improve their relationship.'
Beijing had to accept reality, and that a harsh reaction would severely affect Hong Kong's economy and stability, Ma said.
Ahead of the election Beijing issued a stream of ominous threats about the possibility of a Chen win, with Premier Zhu Rongji warning that if Taiwan's voters acted impulsively they might not get a second chance.
Y.K. Chan, head of research and economist at CEF GC Brokerage, agreed with Ma that Chen's first step was crucial.
``There may be some tension, but it depends on whether Chen Shui-bian follows an independence agenda and to what extent,' Chan said.
Chen's Democratic Progressive Party openly espouses independence, but he had backpedaled on the issue to avoid scaring voters.
He had promised that if elected he would not hold a referendum on the issue or change the flag and constitution.
Chan said the Hong Kong stock market was certain to see a shock reaction on Monday, because of Beijing's disapproval of Chen, and the benchmark Hang Seng Index could fall as much as 1,000 points.
But because of strong local fundamentals that was likely to be a short-term setback, Chan said.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 17,083 on Friday.
Lau Siu-Kai, a political commentator at the Chinese University, was pessimistic.
``I think there will be tension between the two sides for some time to come...unless I see something drastic (like) Chen Shui-bian willing to give up all attempts to detach from China,' he said.
The two old rivals China and Taiwan neither understood nor trusted each other and could not agree on basic principles, Lau said.
The deteriorating cross-straits relations would inevitably sour Sino-American ties: the United States would apply pressure on China against a confrontation and this would aggravate anti-U.S. feeling within China.
``Hong Kong will be victimised in the process, especially if the U.S. adopts economic measures against China, with the intention of discouraging (a military intervention),' Lau said. ``I'm not very optimistic at all.'
But Chen Shui-bian was likely to devote time to stabilising his regime and broadening his power base and would not initially have time for the mainland, Lau said.
The final official tally from the Taiwan election showed Chen with 4.9 million votes, narrowly defeating independent James Soong, who had 4.6 million. Trailing in third was Lien Chan, the candidate of the Nationalist Party that has ruled Taiwan since 1945, with 2.9 million.
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