MM:
Start with IBM and then go down the list.
IBM is experiencing problems in mainframes (even IBM's big Japanese competitor has warned already), PCs, and service contracts. Semis have also been smacked.
HWP has lots of problems in PC land, and inventory difficulties. Of course they have Lou the Skirt, so maybe they skate through on accounting, but I doubt it.
Dell has already warned, but no one wants to pay attention. The numbers will help re-establish their focus. This should provide us with the third "in-and-out-quickly-at-numbers-release" opportunity. Just don't hang around or be greedy.
GTW continues to use the leasing situation to provide accounting nonsense, and they've got the game of inflating their numbers with ISP fees down to an art. Too soon to whack them in my opinion, but keep on the radar. Sooner or later the accounting will catch up with them.
AMAT is pure nutso, but there has not been enough bad news yet. The fundamentals suck and I don't know who they will sell product to in 2001, but let them keep it up for a bit yet, as we need follow-on targets.
Dare I mention Intel's crummy prospects? So far, the herd has ignored crummy operating results and accepted hedge fund activities as a short term alternative, but the mood is starting to shift. Watch for now, but we will have a decent ride here before it's over. I also think that as the market gets its mind wrapped around the degree of fibs emanating from this company, (the RMBS fiasco, the chip sets that were shipped before they worked, the "yield-picking" attempts to appear competitive with AMD's Athlon, motherboard problems, the road map to never-never land, etc.) there may well be a severe backlash.
The retail internet stocks should provide plenty of targets as they run out of dough this summer. I'm concentrating on balance sheet analysis here. (g) They will find the well dry this time around and its hard to keep even a "new era" company operational when the payroll can't be met and cash is not available to pay for the dollar's worth of product that is shipped for $0.90 of revenue.
Basically, for me, the semis, the box builders and the internut retailers are this year's targets.
Best, Earlie |
