Earlie, re: "Incidentally, so far not one soul has responded to my request to provide evidence of consequential sales in the PC field."
Let me be the first.
If we look at IDC Q1 2000 forecasts and compare them to Q1 1999, they actually paint a much better picture for this year. (Given seasonality and Y2K issues, etc.).
For Q1 2000 they predict 20% YOY growth, with -9% Q4/Q1 growth.
For the same period a year ago they predicted 14.3% YOY growth, and -14.7% Q4/Q1 growth.
Of course this isn't evidence, only forecasts, but IDC's customers are telling them things are better than last year. Additionally, Intel has stated they expect Q1 to be flat to slightly up from Q4. Much better than IDC's forecast. (How much of this is non- PC related remains to be seen. The now infamous "All Other" category).
It's also interesting that a year ago IDC forecasted both unit an dollar growth but they didn't do that this year. (Only units).
It's all very confusing, and getting more difficult to put your arms around. Shortages of hi end PIII's, mobo makers with the wrong mix in their plans, problems with 820/840 chip sets/mobo's, apparently low demand for anything Rambus, etc. Yet Dan Niles predicts Q1 will be outstanding.
The industry results for Q1 will be very interesting.
JMHO's
Gene |
