Manx, Carey, Youlu, All: Recent trading & thoughts
The fundamental story for vc has already been stated several times and I'll come back to that in a bit, but first a look at the technicals.
Technical analysis depends on your trading time horizon for a particular stock. If you look at a 3 month horizon, the charts show fvc is in a downfall with moneyflow being +ve $50million at the beginning of March and now basically Zero (ie a loss of $50 million money flow in the past 2 1/2 weeks). The on-balance volume shows basically the same pattern, though it is truncated a little earlier. The difference in these 2 measures is money flow is the $-flow whereas the OBV is just a share-flow, so the fact that the money flow is worse means that larger-than-average trades are sales.
The moving averages show FVC in a decline and if it crosses to the negative, we are in for a more of a negative period.
What would be needed to brake the downfall is some good news. However, we just had some good news this week (apprently good news) and on up-market days, yet FVC still went down.
This leads back to the fundamentals, I believe.
While the vc market should do well, it is a "peripheral" market in that it does not control its own fate and is dependent on other markets eg. internet infrastructure (backbone, connection/final mile) markets.
Additionally, FVC needs to be aware of other competing technologies. RVSN has been around for about 10 years, is part of a larger group (RAD), helped form the H.323 ITU standard, has its own MCU gateway, has over 250 customers , etc.
LOUD also went public.
Though the news for FVCX seemed good, it was overshadowed by other companies in the marketplace, I believe, and investment and trading dollars went to these other companies and may continue to do so - we need to be on the look out for this and take it into account in our own trading horizons.
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