Awakening of the 700 lb Gorilla! Friede Goldman Halter, Inc
Comparisons to a couple of other fab's:
FGH has more NEW business on a comparative (per share) basis than does UFAB & GIFI has in TOTAL backlog. a/o 12/31/99 backlog of the latter 2 was as follows:
GIFI - - $38.9m/11.638m shares = $3.34 backlog per basic share
UFAB - $18.4m/6.773m shares+ $2.72 backlog per basic share
GIFI & UFAB price recovery is ALREADY underway:
GIFI - quote.yahoo.com
UFAB - quote.yahoo.com
In the past 3 months FGH has reported new and revised contracts of $261m (I broke this down earlier, so will not repeat.).
FGH - $261m/39.88m shares = $6.54 backlog per basic share
FGH - quote.yahoo.com
The $6.54 per share backlog DOES NOT include the $100m annual Maintenance and Repair business and NONE of the OLD backlog (profitable or unprofitable). The $6.54 per share backlog IS the WORST CASE scenario.
It is a GIVEN that conditions for the fab's is improving. I ASSUME FGH will secure a significant portion of the TDW new build contracts as they are released.
I am accepting as fact these statements: "The Company believes, based upon current estimates, that all of the earnings impact of unprofitable contracts as well as merger-related expenses have been provided for in the quarter." And, "The Company anticipates significantly improved financial results for the current year."
marketwatch.newsalert.com
I have strong (fundamental, technical, pshychological & analytical) reasons to believe SUBSTANTIAL price recovery for FGH looms in the VERY NEAR future. Many of these reasons have already been posted; but, I have new and broader perspectives based on recent developments and further research. If I were ever inclined to USE MARGIN, I would do it now; but, that is NOT a consideration in my game plan.
As of now, I am suspending EVEN modest trading because I do not wish to be in the position of trying to play catch up when this 700 pound gorilla comes out of hibernation. EVEN the NET NEW shares acquired in the 5s WILL NOT be sold for less than $20. FGH has a history of MOVING VERY FAST on the break. I will not be left on the sidelines with ANY of my shares when the MOMENTUM players make their move. I FULLY expect to see million+ share VOLUME within 3 weeks and almost certainly by the end of April. This is NOT wishful thinking. If, Friday's close @ 6 « becomes the norm between now and April 6th, the 100DMA resistance will drop below 7 and become the NEW support and the 200DMA (final resistance) will drop below 9 «. I think any significant news (ie. Amethyst/Petrodrill settlement, new orders, etc.) will cause a run through the 9 1/2 technical and the 10 pshychological barriers like a hot knife through butter.
From the current base of 6 «, I FULLY expect a DOUBLE within 90 to 120 days and perhaps another double from that level by year's end. THE BAD NEWS is out and there WILL be a steady stream of positives as far as I can see. I KNOW others disagree with these views and that is their prerogative.
Consolidated information in the 8K will lay to rest many of the rumors and will provide the BASIS for complete and accurate analysis & DD, thus removing the final obstacles to my expectations of substantial price appreciation. FWIW
I am in this game for the long haul and I WILL make a helluva lot of money. BELIEVE IT OR NOT!
Good luck
SargeK |
