Blankmind, I am learning to hate the insurance business and the stocks thereof -g-
Allstate (ALL), imo represents an okay buy at this point for a value investor. Sorry I did not buy more in high teens.
Somebody is very, very, wrong about ESG Re (ESREF). So far it's me. But I have a lot of company. There is a bunch of insider buying all the way down on this stock. Well, with a great price/book, maybe 2x cash, no LTD, they do have some financial reserve. If they could only now make some money. How they might do this I don't know. Still, I may add to my position just on what I perceive as cheap price to its assets.
I'm believing now it's going to be about appropriate business models. We've read on the Buffett thread how GEICO
will increase its marketing by $1B. Two companies which might have models that could work to help them fend off this onslaught are ALL and CGI (which I've posted on before). With Allstate, you might not (won't?) get the cheapest auto rates, but you will be easily and conveniently able to keep all your insurance requirements with them. ALL has the money to spend to set up an e-business. They will spend if they have to and it will cause them turmoil and bucks. It's in the stock price now, I hope. With CGI, the dominant auto insurer in Massachusetts, you get the inertia of people comfortable with CGI. Plus CGI's marketing ploy is to groups - if x number of your members sign up with us, we'll give you all a very good price break.
I've been selling some CGI - the only insurance co. I have whose stock price is above my cost - and I will likely start a position in UNUM (UNM)- another troubled carrier, but the dominant player in disability ins.
fwiw,
Paul S. |
