Timing...
I believe the G game was better played when the market was control by the institutions anyhow, but as of now, they have lost the market to the retail buyers, and day traders. I see more and more casino like behavior and the time frame reduced to months. Example ELON. 12 to 100 in three month. Blink and your potential Gorilla is fully priced. By the time you all saw it ELON was in it's 40s.
Agree and disagree.
I think the GG is still an excellent method for comparing Technology stocks, understanding their strengths and weaknesses, and stock selection.
But I do agree that the time frame seems to have been shortened. For example, I read Garyx's Hunt report on LHSP, for speech recognition at the beginning of the week, although I had carried it around for days. I finally found some time yesterday to look into the company, and visit the thread. It was hanging around $40-50/share for a while, and then...BOOM.....in early February it takes off on a couple of announcements from Microsoft trying to more tightly incorporate Speech Recognition into Office 2000/2001, and LHSP announcing Speech Recognition into handheld devices.....and now, the market cap has more than doubled since then.
www3.techstocks.com
I think this field has incredible potential, and unlike pump lasers or commercial heating system operating systems software, can be understood by Joe average consumer (ie, me). Should LHSP become a standard, its application will be widespread (PCs, handhelds, cars, appliances, etc.). But already, before I can even think about investing, it's doubled.
I think it is this more compressed time period that is pushing many here and elsewhere to jump in before the tornado......thereby raising risk. A great example of this would be many of Gilder's telecosm picks, which are nowadays instantaneously driven to insane and unreachable multiples.......eg, Xcelera (XLA) which was mentioned a couple months ago, and has moved in share price in the past 52 weeks, from < $1/share to $400 by the beginning of March. For those of us still on the "Day Job" pushing electrical supplies around working like an elephant*, it's frustrating to see potential opportunities launched into orbit before we get a chance to do a little DD.
BTW, if you go to the LHSP thread, you'll find Gregory Mullineaux bought into the stock immediately prior to the current run-up, based, in part, on reading the charts. How fortuitous that the announcements just happened to occur right afterwards! Congratulations Gregory.
Stan
*borrowed from "WALL STREET", in which Gordon Gekko explains why he doesn't want to drop dead at age 50 like his father, but instead seeks inside information to get ahead. |
