Grasshopper, I agree with you that we got some very nice bargains last week, and for the time being, I will assign to irrational fear of the Taiwanese situation the break under $51 that provided these bargains Nevertheless, the technical damage was done, and now comes the period of reconstruction, we have two critical areas of overhead resistance to overcome before the return to the $60', the last support at $51 and then some additional overhead supply at the $55/56 area.
Mind you, I thought the top in RMBS would be $222, so don't count on my $85 value as a good target, if history repeats itself, my "fair" valuations always prove to be twice as high in downturns and half as much in upturns, so according to this measure, I should expect CYMI to reach at least $170 (VBG).
If you are a long term bull, like many on this thread (I believe that my call for a top this year of $85 is the lowest in the group) which believe the rightful price of CYMI is between $100 and $200, then these gyrations might be of little importance. I however, believe that the easy money in CYMI and AMAT has been made, and from here on we will have to work hard for additional meaningful gains.
Zeev |
