I think thoughts of China invading Taiwan any time soon are a gross over-reaction to what I see as a blunt and crude attempt to try and influence the Taiwan election. First off, China doesn't have the means for an invasion. They would need thousands and thousands of amphibious craft to carry the invading force. As of this time they haven't built them. Then they would need an Air Force to nullify the US warplanes, otherwise the invading fleet would be sitting ducks for American planes. Then they would need a Navy to counter the US Navy. At present China does not have a competitive air force or fleet.
Militarily, China has a huge land army and missiles to strike at Taiwan, but no way to invade. So even if they leveled Taiwan to the ground with their missiles, how are they going to occupy? And why would they want to destroy an economic powerhouse? And why risk US retaliation? The US could easily level their cities. Makes no strategic sense. Just to get Taiwan back? Their sensibilities are more attuned to the long run. They believe in the long view of history. Theirs is a culture that goes back over six thousand years. They waited for Hong Kong for how many years? Just a blip of time for them. So they will the wait for Taiwan.
Finally, China has been in only one major war in the last god knows how many years: Korean War. The border skirmishes with India, Vietnam, simply don't count. They only entered the Korean War when MacArthur, verbally threatening to invade, came within miles of their border. It was a defensive action, not offensive. So although I am concerned about the verbal bellicosity, I don't think the Chinese will invade because it goes against their sensibilities, their history, good business sense and military capacities.
rustam |
