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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Rustam Tahir who wrote (24508)3/19/2000 12:57:00 PM
From: WTSherman  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
rustam, I think all of your points are very sound. Probably the only thing that could set off a chain of events that could not be controlled, would be a declaration of independence by Taiwan. I doubt this will happen.

Otherwise, it makes no sense for China to take military action against Taiwan. A physical attack on Taiwan would result in the collapse of the Chinese economy and virtual isolation from the west. At the same time, they don't have the means to physically occupy the island, so they would pay a huge price and not accomplish very much.

For the Taiwanese there isn't much to be gained by declaring independence. They are de facto independent now. Making this official would only cause a crisis and lead to possible widespread destruction and loss of life.

The U.S. is in a weird position here. Like almost all countries, it is not ready to say that Taiwan is an independent nation. This sets a precedent that most nations are not ready to endorse. They do not want to open the door to foreign nations supporting or endorsing independence movements inside their borders. This is why the government speaks out of both sides of its mouth. Politically and morally it can't abandon Taiwan. At the same time, it can't write a blank check of support for Taiwan, either. So, it talks about "one China", while warning the mainland Chinese against provocative actions.
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