UIS, IBM and CPQ don't deliver the goods? Come on my man. Do your DD on these companies and you'll find they're on the verge of not only recoveries but break-outs. IBM in particular seems to have the cutting edge tech now. CPQ has implemented a powerful internet strategy and the Alta Vista IPO will shed light on that with CMGI. Their IPaq and other new products enable them to "do an Apple" at least in part. UIS is extremely undervalued longer term, the Y2K slow-down is over and by second quarter they should be rolling nicely. At 17 PE this stock is a steal. If I had to buy one stock now with a combination of aggressive new and growth safety it would be IBM. Look at how they're taking on EMC, INTC, B2B, DD's etc. They're going to be dominant in all of these fields. I also like Lu for the same reasons.
I'm not saying a high-flier might not be a good buy if it falls 20% or more. After a fall they start to get my interest too, but value is certainly back in style now with the Naz hitting 5000 and some of the highest-fliers in nose-bleed territory. CSCO for instance is priced assuming ongoing 50% growth. Think that can continue forever? Nothing is forever, not a recovery play like CPQ or UIS (last year's were ORCL and COMS, remember, no one wanted those stocks a year ago). LOR is also a huge recovery play. The break-up value of the company alone is worth about 400% more than where it's sitting now (52 week low range) and they ARE the delivery system of the future for wireless. Meanwhile other companies of the future which are still losing money are selling at astronomical prices. I may miss out on a few high-fliers and get screwed by dogs going even lower but right now I feel safe with the beaten down value plays. Question is, can I hang on long enough to make the big bucks? Usually I sell way to early. If I had held my tech value plays from the past two years I'd have profited more than 1000% in my portfolio. (CIEN at $8, ORCL at $21, QCOM pre-split at $45, WIND at $12, SUNW pre-split at $26, all stocks I picked out as undervalued but just didn't hold. Took the fast profit and ran.)
Not saying I'm perfect but UIS, IBM, CPQ, LOR, LU will all run very much higher in the not-too-distant future. I'm sure of it. And some of the high-fliers will not go up or fall, some steeply. All it takes is missing by one cent the the whole perception of invulnerability collapses. I don't like that kind of risk. |
