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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: blankmind who wrote (10195)	3/19/2000 4:51:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) of 78526

blankmind (TRH, GMT): only other strong insurance buyback I see now as I look through my notes-- TRH. Situation is much different though. With TRH, you have Greenberg as TRH Chairman who has his AIG keep buying, buying, buying shares of TRH. The plus is that your downside with TRH is limited (as long as AIG keeps buying). (Too bad I wasn't nimble/astute enough to add when TRH was lower in past few weeks.) Negative is that if Greenberg ever does actually mount a takeover (and since he'll already own the majority of TRH, maybe he won't want to), it won't be for much money. I face that same possibility with GATX (GMT) & Mr. Buffett. I am possibly one of the few who look upon Mr. Buffett's large 14% share investment there as a danger to the shareholders' pocketbook. Because with 14% I'm convinced Mr.Buffett could/would/might cosider a buyout of the whole company. And Buffett being Buffett, it could happen and for what HE considers a fair price. Generosity not being his strong suit - say $42.50/sh up from $28-30 where it was trading before his first large holding was announced. Now that would be terrific (imo) for people following Mr. Buffett into that stock in the past few weeks. But for long term holders like me who've been building up holdings over the past few years, I(we) would not realize the value of the stock as I see it or be compensated enough @$40 or $45 for years of holding. (The stock's essentially gone nowhere in past few years although its business value has increased.) A similar situation happened to long term holders of Dairy Queen, I believe. Mr. Buffett ooched them out of the really good earnings and stock gains we might have seen as DAIQY came out with new popular products and greatly increased expansion of units. jmo, Paul

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