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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 694.04+0.7%Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote ()3/20/2000 11:43:00 AM
From: Arial  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Did NYSE Specialists get their clocks cleaned or did they just short some more?

Article from Jeff Cooper:

On Friday, five-day advancing volume raced to its highest level in many years. According to some technicians, last week's reading may be the highest in 10 years. Coming on the heels of a 16% decline, the suggestion is higher prices. Volume usually peaks ahead of price. At the same time, some configurations on the TRIN (an overbought/oversold measurement of advancing volume and declining volume versus advancing issues and declining issues) closed out the week at severely overbought levels--one of the most overbought readings in 10 years. As you can see, the price action is historic.

Bottom line: If the message of the market is that this week's expected interest rate hike will be the last for a while because it senses that economic growth will slow, then we may see a multi-month rally. On the other hand, reports show that the level of specialists shorting has risen to its highest percent of the past year. Released on Friday, the report shows that NYSE specialists represented 52.4% of all short volume on the NYSE in the week ending March 3 (the reports are always two weeks after the fact). Could much of last week's rally on the NYSE represent short covering? If not, the index may retreat. These guys have a history of being correct. If they are correct, the S&P has tested the Jan. 3 high and is at a double top.
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