SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: ToySoldier who wrote (30760)3/20/2000 1:39:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
Watching NOVL

Today's chart doesn't look good. And tomorrow we have Greenspan. It now comes down to this --- will Greenspan raise 1/4 or raise 1/2. If he raises 1/4 will the Fed go to a neutral stance.

In the event that the Fed raise 1/2 we get a massive correction in the stock market, followed by a worried look at whether the Fed is saying more is in store. This scenario is unlikely since Greenspan telegraphs his blows now pretty well.

If we get 1/4 point and a neutral bias then NOVL may bottom out today or tomorrow and then rally back up over 30.

If we get a Fed signal that another rate increase is coming at the next meeting then we get a subdued rally.

Meanwhile the two other factors for NOVL. First general corporate profits for the quarter. Second Novells second quarter and BRainshare announcements of partnerships.

NOVL is in the same pattern as prior quarters --- waiting for a revenue bounce. This quarter will tell the tale of Netware 5.1 revenues.

I don't think Brainshare will produce any bombshells. The only one that could have an effect on the stock at this point would be a major partnership that contains explicit revenue assumptions.

The analysts will be looking carefully at the directory based applications revenues for signs of meeting growth expectations.

Short term: Buying opportunities in the 26-28 range.
Brainshare: Slight bounce unless major announcement.
Post Brainshare: Depends upon corporate earnings and expectations of whether Novell will meet or exceed revenue expectations for its quarter.
Two-three weeks prior to earnings release: Bounce

Then comes the wait for earnings.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News