Cell Genesys (CEGE) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Cell Genesys (CEGE)

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To: Cheryl Galt who wrote (798)	3/20/2000 3:00:00 PM
From: david james	of 1298

My guess is that we have some hedge funds playing the relationship between CEGE and ABGX. They helped to drive CEGE up with ABGX then shorted the hell out of CEGE back to 25. They then turn to ABGX and short the hell out of it hoping that the drop in ABGX will scare CEGE shareholders into selling and allowing them to cover their shorts. Unfortunately, the short levels will not come out for another 10 days or so. CEGE sold a good ABGX shares at $210 and at the price, the demand was high, resulting in an over-allotmant. So that is a good point to value the shares. Any rise above that price should probably be discounted (I'll discount it by 50%). So my current valuation model would be something like CEGE company valuation + $250 mill + 2.426mill* ($210 + (ABGX price - $210).50) At a $230 price for ABGX that would be = CEGE company + $250 mill + $2202.426 mill = CEGE + $783 mill With a current market cap of $790 this doesn't give much weight to the valuation of CEGE itself. But as I said, I think we are seeing a few groups trying to play with the two stocks.

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