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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Scumbria who wrote (99334)3/21/2000 2:54:00 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (2) of 1570835
 
Scumbria

As long as I have been watching, the dominant factor affecting inflation is oil prices. In the 70's OPEC had embargoes which drove oil prices and inflation through the roof (Nixon and Carter got the blame.) In the 80's, Iran and Iraq dumped oil to finance their war, and inflation came down (Reagan got the credit.) In the 90's, oil was plentiful and inflation was low (Greenspan got the credit.)

In part, the lack of inflation is due to commodity prices (including oil) not going thru the roof. However according to economists that are proponents of the new economy, productivity increases have also played a strong role in keeping inflation in check. I don't believe oil was responsibile for the early '90's recession.

The behavior of the Fed is little more than noise in the equation.

I can't pretend to know history that well but its my understanding before there was a fed, this country had very serious booms and busts. And when I say busts, I mean depressions and not recessions. I no more like the Feds involvement than anyone else but I don't have confidence that prices will remain in check indefinitely without some governmental overseer. Greed usually overtakes reasonableness. I am surprised there has not been dramatic price inreases for the past 10 years......that in itself has been a major break through.

ted
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